The “V-shaped recovery” continues

…or is it more like a bullet ricocheting off the floor, about to hit us in the cojones?

Sixteen days late, but tonight I finally got around to updating my “Stock Market Seismometer” (see separate tab above) for the period ending July 2009.  It was a relief to see the control chart has moved out of “extremely over-sold” territory and into the “highly over-sold” range.  I had to go to all the trouble of changing the font colour from red to orange!  The index is now back to where it was in October last year, and continues its inexorable march upwards.

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NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.  For academic interest only.

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Is the worst of the GFC really behind us?

The decision by 10 US banks this week to repay their TARP money and escape the clutches of the Obama remuneration busybodies more or less confirms that the financial crisis is over.

Alan Kohler, “Pricing out the crisis”, Business Spectator, 11 June 2009

Alan Kohler is an Australian business journalist that I have a lot of time and respect for.  So it was interesting to read him confirm what my own crude Stock Market Seismometer has also been indicating over the last three months… perhaps, financially speaking, things are returning to a state of normality?  I’m not qualified to give financial advice, but I’m quietly optimistic that the worst of the Global Financial Crisis is behind us.

Now there’s only the swine flu pandemic currently sweeping Australia to worry about!

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That Really Is A Lovely Bottom

I’ve updated my Stock Market Seismometer (see separate page tab above for details) for the month ending April 2009.  I don’t work in the finance industry, and I’m not qualified to provide financial advice, but it seems that perhaps (just perhaps) the stock market has hit the bottom.  I’ll very likely live to rue that prediction.  The pundits say it’s a dead cat bounce with a lot worse to come.  But over the last couple of months the Australian Stock Exchange All Ordinaries Index has, at least according to my crude measure, started to reverse out of the massively over-sold territory.  There’s a long way to go before I’d describe the stock market as being anything like “in control”, but at least we’re now heading in the right direction.

stock-market-seismometer-2009-04

What an amazing roller-coaster ride.  I’m feeling a little bit woozy from it all.

As an aside – I can’t give you financial advice, but I can at least take my own.  I’ve decided that now is as good a time as any to put a bit of my own money into a managed fund.  So I guess we’ll see what happens.