The “V-shaped recovery” continues

…or is it more like a bullet ricocheting off the floor, about to hit us in the cojones?
Sixteen days late, but tonight I finally got around to updating my “Stock Market Seismometer” (see separate tab above) for the period ending July 2009.  It was a relief to see the control chart has moved out of [...]

Is the worst of the GFC really behind us?

The decision by 10 US banks this week to repay their TARP money and escape the clutches of the Obama remuneration busybodies more or less confirms that the financial crisis is over.
- Alan Kohler, “Pricing out the crisis”, Business Spectator, 11 June 2009
Alan Kohler is an Australian business journalist that I have a lot of [...]

That Really Is A Lovely Bottom

I’ve updated my Stock Market Seismometer (see separate page tab above for details) for the month ending April 2009.  I don’t work in the finance industry, and I’m not qualified to provide financial advice, but it seems that perhaps (just perhaps) the stock market has hit the bottom.  I’ll very likely live to rue that [...]

The Stock Market: Beautiful One Day, Perfect The Next (Part 2)

Several weeks ago I used simple conditional probability to formulate an optimal investment strategy:
…put your money into the market only if the last month was up.  If the prior month was down then keep/take your money out.  Lather.  Rinse.  Repeat.  In theory this strategy should work about 65% of the time.  If, on the other [...]

The Stock Market: Beautiful One Day, Perfect The Next

This planet has – or rather had – a problem, which was this: most of the people living on it were unhappy for pretty much most of the time.  Many solutions were suggested for this problem, but most of these were largely concerned with the movements of small green pieces of paper, which is odd [...]